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Woman predicts big loss for Repubs come November

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  • MauserLarry

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    FrommerStop

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    I use Firefox for my browser and on my homepage they usually have some articles posted. Some are really good and some of them suck. This one caught my eye. Thought you all might find interest in this. Warning, she is potty mouthed.


    https://www.politico.com/news/magaz...ng-new-theory-108944?utm_source=pocket-newtab

    Her prediction:
    And today her model tells her the Democrats are a near lock for the presidency in 2020, and are likely to gain House seats and have a decent shot at retaking the Senate. If she’s right, we are now in a post-economy, post-incumbency, post record-while-in-office era of politics. Her analysis, as Bitecofer puts it with characteristic immodesty, amounts to nothing less than “flipping giant paradigms of electoral theory upside down

    The media tend to be pro-democratic. So I will take the predictions of this guru with reservations.
    Fact is in the 2016 election Hillary won the votes, but still lost the election when the electoral votes were totaled up. Hard for what are close elections to factor something like that in.

    While Clinton received about 2.9 million more votes nationwide, a margin of 2.1% of the total cast,
    Trump received 304 electoral votes and Clinton 227, as two faithless electors defected from Trump and five defected from Clinton. Trump is the fifth person in U.S. history to become president while losing the nationwide popular vote.


    Now the impact of the impeachment needs to figured in relative to turn out. Pro MAGA turnout should be high. I am not sure how democrats will handle Bloomberg vs B. Sanders relative to turn out.
     

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