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Piles of Brush around Marianna/Panama City/etc versus Hurricane Dorian

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  • Big Shrek

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    Ok, if you ain't already burning those big piles of brush that y'all made after Michael...might wanna start NOW. Last thing anyone needs during this next storm is MORE FLYING DEBRIS...quite sure there will be enough flying anyway...it won't need help.

    Every week I ride by HUGE brush piles from the last Hurricane...
    and if Dorian comes this way, all those piles will become AIRBORNE...
    and not the fun jump out of a plane way.

    So break out the Old Gasoline...wood chippers...and anything else one can use to get rid of those piles.

    Hopefully this storm will take a Right Turn and head north long before PC/Marianna/etc...but if it doesn't, its gonna make a heck of a mess.
     

    fl57caveman

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    I would put the old gas in a pressure sprayer, & use it on fence rows to kill weeds...


    using it for starting fires can be incredibly dangerous,.... I know the hard way
     
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    USAF Sarge

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    The projection has it making a turn after going over Central Florida, and aiming for the Panhandle, coming ashore as a Cat 4 storm between Mobile, Alabama and Tallahassee Florida on Thursday. That means we're in the middle of the strike zone here in Panama City.

    Still recovering from Hurricane Michael, which was reclassified as a Cat 5 officially, we are between 1/3 and 1/2 done with repairs, some neighbors houses are still stripped to the studs.*

    If Dorian hits us as a 4 or greater it will devastate this area for sure. Michael came close to knocking us off the map, Dorian can very well finish what Michael started.*

    So by Tuesday depending on whether Dorian's track will affect us or not, my priorities will be buttoning up the house the best we can, and storing yard furniture etc in the shed again. Then hunkering down and waiting it out, and praying our repairs weren't for naught.

    Told the wife, if we get more damage, we'll sell it as is, as we only owe 3 1/2 payments (Will be paid off on Dec 1st) and move somewhere were these dang Hurricanes can't reach us........

    ETA: CINC Household has informed me depending on the track and category, we'll button up everything, lock her up, and run for the border towards Alabama.

    The wait is the worse, we'll be as prepared as we can be, got 40 gallons of fuel for the generators, generators tested again and fueled up. Going to pickup the yard (Planters, patio furniture etc), secure the shed, strike the colors and the pole, board up the windows and sliding glass doors. Head North a bit if it looks bad, and head back after it slows down.

    Here's to hoping it misses us, but by missing us it hits someone else.
     
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    Jester896

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    I would put the old gas in a pressure sprayer, & use it on fence rows to kill weeds...


    using it for starting fires can be incredibly dangerous,.... I know the hard way

    50/50 gas/diesel in the drip torches works good...this time of year gas may go bang 30 minutes after you poor it out when you light it and it blows itself out :)
     

    FrommerStop

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    I would not be burning bush piles without looking at the surroundings and if a permit is needed be sure i have it and a tractor and source of water to control it. I assume there is a reason those piles were not fired.
     

    Viking1204

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    Currently we don't have to worry about it, latest forecast has central Florida keeping it once it comes ashore!
     

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    FrommerStop

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    The projection has it making a turn after going over Central Florida, and aiming for the Panhandle, coming ashore as a Cat 4 storm between Mobile, Alabama and Tallahassee Florida on Thursday. That means we're in the middle of the strike zone here in Panama City.

    Still recovering from Hurricane Michael, which was reclassified as a Cat 5 officially, we are between 1/3 and 1/2 done with repairs, some neighbors houses are still stripped to the studs.*

    If Dorian hits us as a 4 or greater it will devastate this area for sure. Michael came close to knocking us off the map, Dorian can very well finish what Michael started.*

    So by Tuesday depending on whether Dorian's track will affect us or not, my priorities will be buttoning up the house the best we can, and storing yard furniture etc in the shed again. Then hunkering down and waiting it out, and praying our repairs weren't for naught.

    Told the wife, if we get more damage, we'll sell it as is, as we only owe 3 1/2 payments (Will be paid off on Dec 1st) and move somewhere were these dang Hurricanes can't reach us........

    ETA: CINC Household has informed me depending on the track and category, we'll button up everything, lock her up, and run for the border towards Alabama.

    The wait is the worse, we'll be as prepared as we can be, got 40 gallons of fuel for the generators, generators tested again and fueled up. Going to pickup the yard (Planters, patio furniture etc), secure the shed, strike the colors and the pole, board up the windows and sliding glass doors. Head North a bit if it looks bad, and head back after it slows down.

    Here's to hoping it misses us, but by missing us it hits someone else.
    Please give the source of your projection. We are on the fringe of the projected area for the moment and certainly there is no projection of a cat four hitting us yet in the panhandle. It is really too far out to say more.
    No reason to go chicken little yet. I will buy some gasoline today and some nails while keeping my eye on future updates.
    https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2019/hurricane-dorian?map=forecast 8am AST fri aug 30
    7amfriday ast.JPG
    7amfriday astA.JPG
     

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    FrommerStop

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    Currently we don't have to worry about it, latest forecast has central Florida keeping it once it comes ashore!
    There is still a chance it could hit us, small but the threat is there. See my post for computer models. Never say never until the storm is well past us on land well into Georgia or alabama.
     

    USAF Sarge

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    Please give the source of your projection. We are on the fringe of the projected area for the moment and certainly there is no projection of a cat four hitting us yet in the panhandle. It is really too far out to say more.
    No reason to go chicken little yet. I will buy some gasoline today and some nails while keeping my eye on future updates.
    https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2019/hurricane-dorian?map=forecast 8am AST fri aug 30
    View attachment 76309
    View attachment 76311

    My apologies, poor verbiage on my part......At the time of my post, the projection had it hitting the Florida Peninsula as a category 4 storm, going out into the Gulf of Mexico, with a track into the Florida Panhandle. They gave a wide impact range of between Mobile and Tallahassee.

    We've ridden every storm out that has hit the Panhandle since we first got stationed here in Dec 1992. We are always prepared, but Michael has made us leery. Nothing like listening to part of your roof coming off, or watching your ceilings come down around you, and wondering did I screw up and put my family in danger.

    No "Chicken Little" here, just being prepared, and watching. By the time we knew Michael was going to be bad it was too late to leave.

    20181011_063837.jpg
     

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    FrommerStop

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    My apologies, poor verbiage on my part......At the time of my post, the projection had it hitting the Florida Peninsula as a category 4 storm, going out into the Gulf of Mexico, with a track into the Florida Panhandle. They gave a wide impact range of between Mobile and Tallahassee.

    We've ridden every storm out that has hit the Panhandle since we first got stationed here in Dec 1992. We are always prepared, but Michael has made us leery. Nothing like listening to part of your roof coming off, or watching your ceilings come down around you, and wondering did I screw up and put my family in danger.

    No "Chicken Little" here, just being prepared, and watching. By the time we knew Michael was going to be bad it was too late to leave.

    View attachment 76317

    Sorry to hear of losses from hurricane michael. Things in last models have really improve for us in western florida, but are catastrophic for coastal fl, ge, n-s carolina since the storm is turning north at land fall for many of the projections.

    1pm friday ast.JPG
     

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    USAF Sarge

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    Sorry to hear of losses from hurricane michael. Things in last models have really improve for us in western florida, but are catastrophic for coastal fl, ge, n-s carolina since the storm is turning north at land fall for many of the projections.

    View attachment 76319

    True our reprieve is someone else's nightmare.

    Another thing for us (Me and the family) is that after Michael we are a little "Gun-shy" to say the least. Another hit like Michael around here and the majority of the houses will be written off this time. My neighbor got $130,000.00 to fix his house it's valued at $179,000.00 max, his house is still stripped to the studs. If it was damaged again, the insurance company isn't going to pay that again, they'll buy him out and send him on his way. This is the same story throughout our neighborhood. A lot of work done, but still a lot of work to do, to get our houses back to pre Michael status.
     

    FrommerStop

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    Not popular these days, but many florida houses built say up to the 60's were done in block with rebar and concrete in the top row of blocks and often with it concrete and steel vertically every 8 ft. Someone that I know with rental units built this way on pensacola beach during ivan had the storm flow into the front and out the back of the houses. houses had no dry wall or studs to rot. Houses were easy to fix up afterwards. We know that hurricanes come and to count on insurance rebuilding them is not the way to go. My house is block and almost poured solid with concrete and steel in every block cell. The roof is steel and it never has flooded since it was built in '91. Now michael was something, but likely I would not have had serious damage.
    The new storm track could cost the nations as a whole billions of dollars in a worst case scenario and there will horrible financial losses to families. Many will be fleeing our way looking for shelter. . After this is over there may be a lot of cheap beach front property up for sale.
     

    Big Shrek

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    I've been thinking that the computer models weigh too much importance on things that may have zero effect on a Cat 4...they kinda make their own Weather Pattern at that level...and do what they wanna do.

    Anyone remember Elena in '85??
    She visited Pensacola, took a right, went to the armpit of Florida, then TURNED AROUND and came back across Pensacola and then went north just west of us. Nearly 10 days of rain...

    I hope the early Euro model was wrong, because anywhere but here is good for us...but it tracked straight across at Tampa, hit the Gulf, powered up again, then straight into Pensacola/Mobile. Latest models are betting that the high pressure over Oklahoma now is gonna pull Dorian north...frankly, I don't know if it'll have that big an effect on it. We'll see as it develops...
     

    FrommerStop

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    Relative to wind intensity at land fall the models leave a lot to be desired. But in recent years have gotten a lot better, particularly as the storm gets closer. The high pressure area is now letting the storm turn to follow off the coasts of Florida and Georgia aiming now for South Carolina. Still may do considerable damage to coastal areas. With luck maybe it gets to turn to the north sooner staying further away from the coasts. 5amSat aug 31 2013.JPG
     

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    Big Shrek

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    I sure hope so...sucks for them, but better them than us ;)

    Florida Cat.jpg

    Florida Cat 5.jpg
     

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    Big Shrek

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    Relative to wind intensity at land fall the models leave a lot to be desired. But in recent years have gotten a lot better, particularly as the storm gets closer. The high pressure area is now letting the storm turn to follow off the coasts of Florida and Georgia aiming now for South Carolina. Still may do considerable damage to coastal areas. With luck maybe it gets to turn to the north sooner staying further away from the coasts.

    I look at this before I look at what those clowns at the Weather Channel have to say...
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-81.67,31.21,1306/loc=-76.280,26.084

    I see NOTHING in the current wind charts that show any reason for a northward turn.
    Unless they know that HAARP is going to redirect the hurricane, there's zero reason
    for that monster to turn north. The computer models are probably relying on that
    old Hurricane Matthew info a little too much.
     

    FrommerStop

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    I look at this before I look at what those clowns at the Weather Channel have to say...
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-81.67,31.21,1306/loc=-76.280,26.084

    I see NOTHING in the current wind charts that show any reason for a northward turn.
    Unless they know that HAARP is going to redirect the hurricane, there's zero reason
    for that monster to turn north. The computer models are probably relying on that
    old Hurricane Matthew info a little too much.

    I certainly do not understand or know how to do the computations needed to plot the direction of tropical storms. But I do know that wunderground.com has over the years been quite accurate especially as the storm gets closer. They do not claim 100% and allow a large zone of uncertainly. Right now the computer projections that they using are getting very close together that lend more confidence as to what will be happening. Many of these storms do end up going north once they make landfall.
     

    USAF Sarge

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    I look at this before I look at what those clowns at the Weather Channel have to say...
    https://earth.nullschool.net/#curre...ographic=-81.67,31.21,1306/loc=-76.280,26.084

    I see NOTHING in the current wind charts that show any reason for a northward turn.
    Unless they know that HAARP is going to redirect the hurricane, there's zero reason
    for that monster to turn north. The computer models are probably relying on that
    old Hurricane Matthew info a little too much.

    Here's an explanation from one site as to why the shift might/will occur.

    0831_dorian-steering.png
     

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