Target Sports

Rain a comin?

The #1 community for Gun Owners of the Gulf Coast States

Member Benefits:

  • Fewer Ads!
  • Discuss all aspects of firearm ownership
  • Discuss anti-gun legislation
  • Buy, sell, and trade in the classified section
  • Chat with Local gun shops, ranges, trainers & other businesses
  • Discover free outdoor shooting areas
  • View up to date on firearm-related events
  • Share photos & video with other members
  • ...and so much more!
  • MarkS

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    2   0   0
    Joined
    Sep 26, 2013
    Messages
    3,278
    Points
    113
    Location
    Baker,Fl.
    Sure looks like we will be getting more rain next week


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
    Last edited:

    JWlineman

    Master
    Super Moderator
    GCGF Supporter
    Rating - 100%
    5   0   0
    Joined
    Oct 11, 2012
    Messages
    9,176
    Points
    113
    Location
    Pensacola
    Been watching this one for a few days on a few weather pages. The track hasn't changed much and the intensity forecast isn't promising either...

    Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
     

    MarkS

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    2   0   0
    Joined
    Sep 26, 2013
    Messages
    3,278
    Points
    113
    Location
    Baker,Fl.
    We’re overdue for a storm just praying for a minor one and not a major hurricane


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     

    FrommerStop

    Master
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Joined
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages
    6,897
    Points
    113
    Location
    NWFL
    We’re overdue for a storm just praying for a minor one and not a major hurricane


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
    Unfortunately during hurricane season we are always due for a storm. The rain I can handle, but high winds knock trees down, blow down fences, and interrupt power. Forecast to hit 1 pm wed.

    tro cyc 14 possible.GIF
     

    Attachments

    • tro cyc 14 possible.GIF
      tro cyc 14 possible.GIF
      60 KB · Views: 343
    Last edited:

    FrommerStop

    Master
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Joined
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages
    6,897
    Points
    113
    Location
    NWFL
    Here is the 10 pm cdt sat prediction
    They show it coming in has a tropical storm, but not stated if it will go higher or lower as it reaches shore. With luck most of us will be on the western side of it, but it is too early to tell at the moment. I will check my gas and generator and likely go get some fuel tomorrow.
    trop 14.GIF
     

    Attachments

    • trop 14.GIF
      trop 14.GIF
      44.2 KB · Views: 301

    Snake-Eyes

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    2   0   0
    Joined
    Jun 22, 2013
    Messages
    3,416
    Points
    113
    Location
    Florida
    This is a good website for info...

    http://www.spaghettimodels.com

    Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk

    Thanks for that link.

    I haven't searched for this answer, but I wonder if there's a retro-active analysis of these models. One that says something like: ok, this model predicted this path 7-days out, then adjusted it to this at 6-days, 5, 4, etc, and compared to the Actual Track of the storm center, this model was accurate plus/minus xx# miles 7-days out, 6-days out, etc...

    Does that exist? Kind of a way to see which models are historically more accurate?
     

    JWlineman

    Master
    Super Moderator
    GCGF Supporter
    Rating - 100%
    5   0   0
    Joined
    Oct 11, 2012
    Messages
    9,176
    Points
    113
    Location
    Pensacola
    I would imagine that the models do run off historical data. I believe the NHC takes the average of all the models and develops it's "cone of uncertainty".

    Sent from my SM-N950U using Tapatalk
     

    SAWMAN

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    9   0   0
    Joined
    Oct 21, 2012
    Messages
    13,937
    Points
    113
    Location
    Cantonment,Fla.
    The Euro model shows it hitting somewhere between Key West,Fla. and Brownsville,Tx.
    AND . . . I for one,believe 'em. --- SAWMAN
     

    FrommerStop

    Master
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Joined
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages
    6,897
    Points
    113
    Location
    NWFL
    The latest computer models from https://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2018/tropical-storm-michael?map=model have for 4pm cdt have shown a shift to the east for all of the models that they used. I have from years of watching for agreement models and when that happens to more or less trust them.
    I will continue to watch. The last 24 hrs is most most important and always the storms could jiggle a bit east or west then. Right now for those of us in the Pensacola-Milton area things are looking up.

    trop michael.GIF

    We, Pensacola-Milton, still in the edge of where it might strike. By the tomorrow evening we should have an even better estimate narrowing it down i hope. AL seems to be out of the projected storm area.

    trop m.GIF
     

    Attachments

    • trop michael.GIF
      trop michael.GIF
      17.2 KB · Views: 174
    • trop m.GIF
      trop m.GIF
      29.1 KB · Views: 172

    kendive

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    1   0   0
    Joined
    Dec 22, 2012
    Messages
    2,084
    Points
    113
    Location
    offline
    got the generator out, going to get gas today

    I have always liked underground weather.

    https://classic.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2018/tropical-storm-michael?map=forecast

    www.windy.com is a neat site also.

    And yes Frank you can never be to ready... We have 5 generators and I can run pretty much any fuel Gas (I hate), Propane, Natural Gas, and Diesel DL-1, DL-2, Jet Fuel JP-8.

    A couple of the gensets I have installed the Tri-Fuel kits and I have a couple of the MEP's TQG (Tactical Quiet Generator) they will still operate after an EMP (Electromagnetic pulse) LOL





    .
     
    Last edited:

    FrommerStop

    Master
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Joined
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages
    6,897
    Points
    113
    Location
    NWFL
    An emp proof generator sounds good until there is no fuel for it. I plan to get a solar unit that can charge a car battery and do lighting (Use 12 V car bulbs for light) that way and one could charge other equipment if somehow or other the internet and phone service came back.
    I do have a diesel tractor from the 90's and need to find out if it will run after an emp. It has glow plugs that are manually controlled. It has an alternator and not much else electrically that is essential. But even the alternator is not needed if you have a solar charger.
    I have always liked underground weather.

    https://classic.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2018/tropical-storm-michael?map=forecast

    www.windy.com is a neat site also.

    And yes Frank you can never be to ready... We have 5 generators and I can run pretty much any fuel Gas (I hate), Propane, Natural Gas, and Diesel DL-1, DL-2, Jet Fuel JP-8.

    A couple of the gensets I have installed the Tri-Fuel kits and I have a couple of the MEP's TQG (Tactical Quiet Generator) they will still operate after an EMP (Electromagnetic pulse) LOL





    .
     

    kendive

    Master
    Rating - 100%
    1   0   0
    Joined
    Dec 22, 2012
    Messages
    2,084
    Points
    113
    Location
    offline
    An emp proof generator sounds good until there is no fuel for it. I plan to get a solar unit that can charge a car battery and do lighting (Use 12 V car bulbs for light) that way and one could charge other equipment if somehow or other the internet and phone service came back.
    I do have a diesel tractor from the 90's and need to find out if it will run after an emp. It has glow plugs that are manually controlled. It has an alternator and not much else electrically that is essential. But even the alternator is not needed if you have a solar charger.

    Yea EMP proof is really not needed but they have this built in... I also am setting up solar up at the cabin in the woods. Still an on going project but have everything needed to finish. The gen sets are the MEP-802a and the MEP-831a. I bought them to tinker with and use. Looking at getting another 831a soon.

    Just to add your solar equip would not be EMP proof at all. Just had to add that!!!

    Here is a video of me overloading the little green one I call it. The MEP-831a. It's rated at 3kw (80%) but most say it will do 3700 no problem. I loaded it to 4500 to see if the overload protection would work. The contactor (circuit interrupter) worked as designed. Let go of the load. I thought the engine was gonna bog down and die but she tried to handle the load and did well. I plan on doing this to the big one MEP-802a probably gonna load it up to 7 to 8kw.

    https://youtu.be/BmNzaPGP8S4






    .
     

    FrommerStop

    Master
    Rating - 0%
    0   0   0
    Joined
    Apr 7, 2016
    Messages
    6,897
    Points
    113
    Location
    NWFL
    .....

    Just to add your solar equip would not be EMP proof at all. Just had to add that!!!

    .......

    https://youtu.be/BmNzaPGP8S4
    .

    If it is mounted on your roof it would not be. I need to findout how to build proper Faraday cage for storage.
    My house has a metal roof and the each block cell has rebar in it and there is wire everyother course which might help a little. These are things that would be nice to know.

    My heating system does not require any electricity. Only wood and matches.

    By the way the hurricane has been upgraded to make cat one by 1am tue and to approach land as cat two. This is becoming a serious storm.
     
    Top Bottom